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Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms, by Russell Napier
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How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end?
There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 - Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analysing every article in the Wall Street Journal from either side of the market bottom.
In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging.
By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best provisions for the future.
This new edition includes a brand new preface from the author and a foreword by Merryn Somerset Webb.
- Sales Rank: #253762 in Books
- Published on: 2016-01-18
- Released on: 2016-01-18
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.21" h x .81" w x 6.14" l, 1.43 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 336 pages
Review
"I first read the second book on my list when it was published six or seven years ago and it is one of my favourites on investment. Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the great sweep of investment history and, in particular, why markets suddenly decide to stop falling and start rising again.";- Tom Stevenson, The Daily Telegraph;"a must-read for anyone with even a passing interest in the great sweep of financial history";- Tom Stevenson, The Daily Telegraph;"an outstanding 'must-read' for any student of financial markets";- Marc Faber, author of Tomorrow's Gold;"Here's a cushion for when you hit the bottom.";- The Financial Times;"this is an outstandingly researched and lucidly written book, and with conclusions that are as important as they are compelling."- Bill Jamieson, The Scotsman;"[amongst] the finest minds in Asian finance";- AsiaMoney;"The best investment-related read of the year [2006].";- Bob Yerbury, CIO & CEO of Invesco Perpetual;"[one of the] year's best investment books";- 2008 Stock Trader's Almanac;"Keep this book in mind, for one day it will help you make a lot of money! Russell Napier has written a serious book for serious, patient investors.";- Hugh Sloane, Sloane Robinson LLP;"Napier's cogent, lucid explanation of the similarities and differences between historic financial declines makes this book an essential addition to the education of serious equity investors."- Bill Strong, Equinox Partners and Kuroto Fund;"If you want to make serious money you need to invest when others will not. Russell Napier has done all investors a service by providing a comprehensive examination of exactly these periods.";- Sandy Nairn, Edinburgh Partners;"offers essential advice on how investors can determine what's really going on. Russell Napier's book is an excellent guide";- Financial Sense (Yiannis G. Mostrous);"an incredible resource for anyone wanting to learn from lessons of the past"- Jeff White, President, The Stock Bandit;"An accessible yet thorough examination of bear markets for the investor or trader which provides valuable information on the history of market bottoms.";- Geoffrey H. Gannon / Steven Rosales, Value Blog Review
About the Author
Professor Russell Napier is the author of the Solid Ground investment report and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC (www.eri-c.com). Russell has worked in the investment business for 25 years and has been writing global macro strategy for institutional investors since 1995. Russell is founder and course director of the Practical History of Financial Markets at the Edinburgh Business School. Russell serves on the boards of two listed companies and is a member of the investment advisory committees of three fund management companies. In 2014 he founded the Library of Mistakes, a business and financial history library in Edinburgh. Russell has degrees in law from Queen’s University Belfast and Magdalene College, Cambridge, and is a Fellow of The CFA Society of the UK and an Honorary Professor at Heriot-Watt University.
Most helpful customer reviews
7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
No crystal ball, but still worth reading (more than once)
By Taylor
This is a fascinating book that bears (har har!) repetitive readings. Originally published by CLSA in 2005, it saw a second addition in 2007, a third edition in 2009 by Harriman House and is in its 4th printing again under Harriman House in 2016.
Napier studies the great US bear markets which bottomed in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. The "current" bear market at time of original publication was the Tech Bubble crash of 2000 which was ongoing in 2005 when the book was first published. More on that in a moment. Like any historical work, Napier is forced to create a theory from other logical considerations and then selectively apply it by choosing meaningful historical data to interpret through the lens of his chosen theory. There is risk in both having a poorly calibrated logical apparatus for explaining cause-effect relationships and in mischoosing or mishandling chosen data and leading oneself to faulty conclusions as a result. I don't wish to comment on whether or not I think Napier's logical framework and chosen data are successfully employed, I wish only to point out that these kind of endeavors are necessarily speculative in nature and can never be as precise as we might like.
The book deserves to be read multiple times in part because it is so dense with data-- numbers, charts, graphs, tables, etc. But also qualitative data, such as descriptions of the structure of the market and economy at each point in time (what were the growth industries? which sectors were most badly bruised? which saw their quantitative data change first or last?), a wealth of newspaper headlines and story clippings from each era that serve as live commentary (think of them as ancient Twitter feeds...) and descriptions of changes in monetary systems and the strategy of prevailing central bank regimes. This is precisely why it's difficult to get a read on the success of Napier's analysis-- it is far from simple and with so many variables to consider there are so many places the analysis could go astray.
That being said, there are so many variables and that is what makes the book fascinating. It is chilling to go back in time and hear the echoes of the past in their various moments. It is surprising to see how often they do seem to "rhyme". And oh, if only one COULD pull a predictive model out of this mess and use it to time the markets! But even stopping short of that, some themes emerge fairly clearly:
1. When things were about to turn, there were many who could see things getting better but few that would give them credit
2. These drastic bear markets were preceded by great instability and uncertainty about the "general price level" as Napier calls it, and only when a consensus formed about the paradigm shift could the bull market return
3. These bear markets took far longer to play out than most remember-- we have the violent, dramatic crashes burned into our collective memory, but most of the time these things took almost a decade to fully play out
4. No matter what, each cycle brought with it statistically extreme valuations of leading shares based on measures such as the Q Ratio and even P/Es and it seems unlikely there will ever be a bear market without such phenomena almost by definition-- people who have the courage to invest in those moments, however far they are from the bottom, are rewarded with great returns in time
So, where are we now, the burning question for today's reader? At the end of the book (written 2005, mind you), Napier suggests the "current" (re: 2000) bear market likely won't bottom until 2009 at the earliest and 2014 more probably. Of course, 2009 was a major low in the market and 2014 saw the continuation of the up trend since then. Are we in the midst of a new bull started in 2009, or do lower lows await from the "ongoing" bear started in 2000?
The debate rages on!
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
I really enjoyed this book
By fanat1c
I really enjoyed this book as I have only myself experienced 2 stock market crashes and have limited experience investing in those times.
Napier gives a historic review of the great US bear market bottoms and what we can learn from them. I don't imagine timing the market at the bottom, but I think the book gave me tools to recognise conditions in witch I can be more offensive in my investing. What really baffled me was that is not always speculation that goes to boom and then a bust that gives you the undervaluation of equities.
Mind that Napier aint talking about "small bears". He is talking about the great bears of 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. And according to this theory 2001 might have been a start on another great bear.
0 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
One Star
By farouq alessa
Too basic explanations.
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